Welsh Conservatives: room for optimism?

There is the possibility that we are but eight weeks away from an election, but although the Conservatives may claim that they are fighting fit and prepared for a snap election, the evidence points to the contrary. Despite David Cameron's 'strong' performance on Newsnight (though some point out that it wasn't really that much of a grilling), one thing that is quite clear is that the Tories are still undecided as to what their policies are. This would be fine were it mid-term, but not on the doorstep of an election, and not even a debate on the new EU treaty would save their skins were Gordon Brown to call an early election. If anything, Labour MPs who want a referendum on the treaty are likely to shelve their concerns and close ranks once an election date is announced, which only adds to the possibility of a trip to the polling booth this autumn.

But what of the Welsh Conservatives? Well there they may have room for some optimism, and mainly due to its performance in the devolved world of Welsh politics and not as a result of the sporadic visits from their leader in Westminster.

Prior to the May elections the Welsh Conservatives were a party of perpetual opposition, one that had no prospect whatsoever of forming a government by itself and unlikely to be invited to form a coalition by the other parties. In other words, if you wanted to vote in a government, to vote Conservative was to waste a vote. The same of course could be said of Plaid Cymru, and as a result the only chance for either Plaid or the Tories to ever govern was to do so together. Events unfolded otherwise thanks to the bungling post-election gaffs of the Lib Dems. They were the kingmakers, and I'm sure the last thing they anticipated was a Labour-Plaid pact. But to return to my point, with the creation of the All Wales Accord the Tories ceased to be in perpetual opposition and have become prospective partners in government.

Unlike David Cameron's party, we already know what Nick Bourne's party's manifesto and its policies look like. Nationalists may grumble that they are but a branch of the Westminster party, and that their policies still require Cameron's seal of approval, but they are nevertheless policies made in Wales, and include some policies that are opposed to those of Cameron (eg top-up fees). They are still very much a British party, but their efforts to strengthen their Welsh identity has had some degree of success in changing the public's perception of them as being an English party in Wales.

"But surely what happens in the Assembly has no bearing on a Westminster election?" you may ask. Apparently our Welsh MPs believe otherwise, with Albert Owen, David Davies, David Jones and Adam Price all recently demonstrating that what happens on an Assembly level is what sets the political agenda here in Wales. Of course, in any election MPs always need to show their constituents that local matters are their priority, so this is a natural consequence of devolution. All the same, it just goes to show how times have changed.