A letter to the Conservatives

Translation of a letter to David Cameron written by Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of the Institute of Welsh Politics at the Department of International Politics,
Aberystwyth University. The original welsh version can be found in the current edition of the Welsh current affairs magazine, Barn

Dear David Cameron

Forgive me if I’m terribly mistaken, but I suppose wales has never been foremost in your thoughts? Nothing wrong with that, of course. One might as well admit that the Tories have only played a small part in the life of Wales since over a decade now, and the Welsh themselves have had only a small part to play in the life of the Conservative Party since…well, ever as far as I know. Bearing this in mind, ignorance should not be a cause of shame – nor apology either. Nonetheless, is appears to be increasingly likely that you will become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland within the next two years. So Wales will then soon become a part of your responsibilities. As you are preparing to take your place in Downing Street, I’d like to seize the opportunity to draw your attention to a few elements in Welsh politics that you should become aware of before you start to play such a leading role in the life of our country. I will try to do so in a way that is fitting to your and your party’s likely aims in the contect of Wales.

Objectives

I believe there you have two main objectives as far as Wales is concerned. Firstly youwant to ensure the election of more Conservative MPs in Welsh constituencies. Your expectations on this will be realistic ones. You no need no specialist knowledge of Welsh politics to realise that this has been an unprosperous enough ground for your party. Nonetheless, winning a total of 6 to 8 seats in Wales would be of real benefit in carrying you across the threshold of number 10. It would also to some extent be a means of lessening the perception that the Conservative Party is an English party. That is important as your second objective is to preserve the Union.

Don’t worry, I understand perfectly that it is the Union with Scotland that really counts. After all, Scotland forms a quarter of the United Kingdom’s territory and in its seas are to be found 95% of the oil. A Scottish port is the home of those submarines that carry Britain’s nuclear missiles. In other words, losing Scotland means losing Britain’s greatness. That means that Scotland is important in a way that Wales can never hope to be. Nevertheless, perhaps you would much prefer it if Welsh nationalists never gain the same amount of strength and momentum as their Scottish cousins. That would only destabilize the state further and threaten its international status.

If this is indeed your starting point, allow me to draw your attention to three all important factors you will need to know if you are to realise these objectives.

Public Opinion

To the wonder of those of us who remember the 1997 referendum, let alone its predecessor in 1979, the people of Wales are now devolutionists. This is underlined by making a comparison between Wales and Scotland. In Scotland opinion surveys are constant in finding between 40% and 50% of the people of that country favour some alternative form of government to devolution: some of them favour no devolution at all but many more of them support independence. In complete contrast, there has not been one academic survey of views that has found more than 15% in favour of independence. On top of this, the percentage that opposes any form of devolution has fallen to about 15%. That means that as much as 70% of the electorate now favour some form of devolution for Wales. If you can respect that opinion then you can be fairly sure there is no danger of the Welsh catching the Scots’ fever for independence.

That’s the good news: the rest is not so good.

Welsh Unionists

The term Unionist is a fairly recent addition to the Welsh political vocabulary. Unionists, Unionist, and the rest. In the Wales of my childhood the only ‘unionists’ around were members of the NUR, the NUM, and so on. In contrast to the situation in Ireland and even Scotland, in Wales the connection with the British state appeared so natural and so ageless that there was no need for a special label to describe those who desired its continuity. Those rare people who opposed it - the Welsh Nash – were the ones who needed to be differentiated with a special name. Now, however, the world has turned. But the Unionists, especially, act as if they were stuck in the rut of the past.

Traditionally, the term Nationalist had a very catholic meaning in the Welsh context: it tended to be used to mean a person who favoured any kind of self-governance for Wales. The length and breadth of that self-governance was neither here nor there in reality, with members of Plaid Cymru, even, often easy going and amateurish regarding the exact model of home rule that ought to be pursued. The Unionist view, on the other hand, tended to cherish the ideal of political uniformity between England and Wales. Assimilation was the alternative goal of the traditional unionist mainstream in Wales. This again contrasts with the situation in both Scotland and Ireland, where there existed a powerful unionist tradition that argued in favour of a large measure of self-governance whilst also, at the same time, promoting the value of the Union.

In the wake of devolution the traditional Welsh Unionist worldview was completely undermined. Yes, a few in your party, most notably David Melding and Lord Griffiths of Fforestfach, tried to construct a new tradition that celebrates devolution from the Union. As did a few Labour leaders such as Rhodri Morgan and Peter Hain. But despite their efforts, the most vocal faction among Welsh Unionists – your three MPs as well as the majority of Labour MPs from Wales amongst them – continue to cherish and express some old sour and illiberal attitude towards devolution. For them it is something to be suffered, not something to be celebrated; an empty step that has to be stomached along with its consequences rather than a path that should have been taken much earlier. Looking towards the future, their attitude simply is ‘no more’. They consider any talk of strengthening the National Assembly as dangerous heresy.

But why, you say, should this worry you? What is wrong with the idea of leaving things as they are? This will become clear as we turn to the system of devolution itself.

The Constitutional ‘Settlement’

I’m not sure how much notice you took of the contents of the Government of Wales Act as it passed through Westminster in 2006. Not much, I’d venture. Did you not have other things to worry about at the time, such as making your party more attractive to voters? But if indeed those efforts will be rewarded within two years, I’d guess that Part Three of that act will cause you and your supporters.a bit of a headache.

Through the implementation of Part Three the National Assembly will get its power. This is the power to pass measures, and these in the fields noted by Schedule 5 of the Act. The relative point for you –and the prospective headache- is the way the fields reach Schedule 5. The order established by the Act is this: Cardiff makes a request for the power to pass measures in a particular field. The request is forwarded to the Wales Office. If the Secretary of State is happy then it is forwarded to Welsh Affairs Select Committee. After receiving the seal of approval of the Select Committee then the Order for the transference of the necessary powers to the Assembly must receive the seal of approval of the two Houses.

Once you have formed a government you will realise straight away that this system gives you and your party the power to veto the activities of the National Assembly. You will have appointed the Secretary of State. Although you cannot hope to have a majority among Welsh Members of Parliament, there will be, nonetheless, a Conservative majority on the Select Committee. And a Conservative majority in the two Houses. It will be a small matter then for you to restrict the Assembly’s legislative plans. And bearing in mind that a government of a very different ideological nature will is in power in Cardiff, then the temptation to use the veto will be very hard to refuse – certainly it proved too great a temptation for the present Labour government.

But what will be the consequences of this? Put simply, continuous conflict between Cardiff and London; a conflict that will be sure to be interpreted as a conflict between Wales and England, with England restricting the democratic will of the Welsh. You cannot win that struggle. Like it or not, the Welsh are now devolutionists. On top of which, every bit of evidence I have concerning public opinion in Wales demonstrates that the people of this country trust more in Cardiff than in London. If it becomes a squabble between the two sides then the majority of the Welsh will support Cardiff. So, although obstructing the Assembly from taking steps you consider to be unwise or foolish will give short term satisfaction to the Conservatives –as well as Welsh Conservatives- in the long term it will be sure of damaging your party’s prospects in Wales. It could also easily push Wales towards a more Scottish direction in terms of its constitutional desires.

More intelligent unionists understand perfectly that more devolution is to the Union’s benefit. By moving towards a system of primary legislative powers for Wales –a Parliament for Wales- we will be able to differentiate more clearly between Cardiff and London. That in itself will lessen the likelihood of continual tension and wrangling. Living together will be that much easier. But as we have seen, these intelligent unionists are not those who form the unionist mainstream in Wales. Persuading the majority of them – the ‘no more’ and the ‘no further’ people would be a considerable achievement. But by trying to think strategically, I can’t see that you have any other choice.

If you choose not to get to grips with the present sytem’s problems, then you are likely to threaten the Union and the long term prospects of the Conservative Party in Wales. Even in the short term, there are good reasons for you to adopt a more positive attitude towards primary powers for Wales. Certainly, you can hardly lose votes by doing so. As you know, the core Conservative vote is so eager to give Labour a kicking that they are content to swollow unpleasant enough means in order to do so. But there are votes to be won. In Conwy, Montgomeryshire and West Carmarthenshire, for example, there is a substantial number of voters who could be persuaded to vote for your candidates if they believe that the Conservatives are ready to adopt a positive attitude towards Wales. And if you start to win those seats, then with a fair wind, gaining 10 or more Welsh seats could be a realistic possibility.

I realise you would prefer to ignore the question of Welsh devolution. Certainly, you don’t want to invest political capital in trying to deal with the deficiencies of the present system. The problem that faces you, however, is that doing nothing could be synonymous as continuing with a situation that is almost bound to create permanent discord between Cardiff and London; discord that will be damaging to the prospects of the party you lead and the Union you support. I’m sorry to say that this is a matter you cannot afford to avoid.

Yours sincerely,

Richard Wyn Jones